Economists v. Everybody Else as Forecasters
The Journal’s Real Time Economics blog reports that the Philadelphia Fed has released the results of a survey it conducted of professional economic forecasters–and that 75% now expect the United States to emerge from recession in Q3 2009 (up from 54.5% three months ago). Well I checked in over at Intrade, and it turns out the general public has seen an even more dramatic swing of faith in the U.S. economy’s prospects for the quarter. Whereas three months ago, Intrade’s contract priced in a 40% chance of positive U.S. growth in Q3, now the market is pricing in a 90% chance. See the chart below.
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