talking point | the blog at LeeHudsonTeslik.com

Chart Candy (2), 08/04/09

Posted in Charts by teslik on August 4, 2009

From CFR’s Geo-Graphics blog, which I highly recommend, here is a look at the total commercial paper outstanding, from 2003 to the present.

demise2

Source: Council on Foreign Relations, Geo-Graphics Blog, “Commercial Paper,” August 4, 2009 (LINK)

Chart Candy, 08/04/09

Posted in Charts by teslik on August 4, 2009

From Krugman’s NYT blog post referenced in this morning’s roundup.  The black states are the worst hit by unemployment:

state-u

Source: New York Times, via Princeton (LINK)

Trading on Palin

Posted in Charts, Prediction Markets by teslik on July 30, 2009

I love prediction markets, not because I think they are accurate but because I’m so often surprised at what they reveal about how people are interpreting the news.  One indicator I’ve been tracking on Intrade is the market predicting whom the GOP candidate will be in 2012. Today I noticed that Sarah Palin’s “stock” has been behaving interestingly since her resignation earlier this month. See the chart, below:

palin

She announced her resignation on July 3. At that point, Intrade’s market put the percentage probability of Palin becoming the 2012 GOP presidential nominee at 13%. The news prompted a huge selloff, on high volume, halving that percentage to 6.5% in one day. But since, her stock has steadily risen, and the market now puts her chances of emerging as the nominee at 16%–higher than before she announced her plans to step down.